THE SPORTS MEMO = 15-15
INTERNATIONAL BOWL
Buffalo vs. UConn -4 O/U 51.5
Saturday, January 3, Noon ESPN2 - Toronto
Recommendation: UConn
The Big East has come out victorious in both attempts in International
Bowl’s short existence and the stars seem to be aligning that way once again. While the Huskies aren’t quite as balanced and dynamic as Rutgers was in 2007, they feature a very similar and quite dominant ground game. The Scarlet Knights were able to take advantage of their imposing size up front and control the game on the ground against Ball State a year ago and we expect Connecticut to follow a similar game plan. UConn junior running back Donald Brown led the nation in rushing with over 1,800 yards. With 300+ carries nobody in football had as much sustained success from a yards per carry perspective. His 17 touchdowns put him in the top six in the country. He’s a workhorse back in every sense of the word and should find plenty of daylight against the Buffalo defense. Huskies quarterback Tyler Lorenzen suffered a broken foot midway through the campaign forcing a pair of inexperienced signal callers into action. To no great surprise the offense suffered. Lorenzen came back late in the season to post predictably rusty performances, the worst of which came in the finale against Pitt. But Lorenzen has plenty of experience
and he proved last year to be more than capable as a game manager with a better than 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception
ratio. At full strength and having a solid month to work out the kinks, we expect a solid performance. Buffalo started the campaign slowly losing five of its first seven games. It wasn’t the start Turner Gill had anticipated after returning senior
signal caller Drew Willy and 17 other starters from a team that was ultra-competitive in 2007. However, the early struggles
would be a distant memory by the end of the year as the Bulls rallied to win six of their last seven games including a memorable
upset of previously undefeated Ball State in the MAC Championship game. Willy was phenomenal over the course of the year completing a high percentage of his passes while firing 25 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He, like Lorenzen, was aided by a strong ground game as James Starks rushed for 16 touchdowns.
Defensively Buffalo is suspect and on that side of the ball, UConn holds a distinct advantage. Three of Buffalo’s wins over the back half of the season came in overtime. Four of the wins came despite being outgained by the opposition. And their MAC title came in large part because of five turnovers from Ball State. The streak brought plenty of attention from the media and Gill is all of a sudden one of the hottest coaching
commodities on the market. Distractions will be abundant during the time off which may leave Buffalo less than fully focused
on an imposing opponent. We’ll ride the better defense and strong ground game to get the win with the Huskies.
THE SPORTS MEMO
NFC WILD CARD
ATLANTA AT ARIZONA +2.5
O/U 50.5
Recommendation: Arizona
Situational - With a 7-2 SU run to end the season the Falcons had a shot to secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC the final week. The Cardinals stumbled into the postseason
clearly lacking focus after locking up the West division early. Fundamental - Two potent offensive attacks will be on display in the desert but they go about their business in different fashion. With free agent acquisition Michael Turner leading
the way, the Falcons rushed for over 150 ypg, good for second in the league. With veteran signal caller Kurt Warner routinely finding Fitzgerald and Bouldin the Cardinals ranked second in the league in passing with 292 ypg. Game Notes - Since opening their new stadium in 2007 the Cardinals have gone 12-4 SU at home. When they have been installed as an underdog at home they are 3-1 SU/ATS. Final Take - Arizona’s home field advantage is as real as the numbers suggest. With a savvy veteran under center and the league’s best tandem of WRs we look for the Cards to have their way through the air. Matt Ryan’s INT numbers rose as the playoff chase intensified, a major red flag in our mind. The home team is the clear choice.
NFC WILD CARD
PHILADELPHIA AT MINNESOTA +3
O/U 42
Recommendation: Minnesota
Situational - The Vikings won six of their eight home games this season yet find themselves installed as a three-point underdog to a Philly team that won just three road tilts all year. Fundamental - When the Vikings aren’t turning the ball over they have a potent offensive attack. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 14 TDs and Bernard Berrian has provided a deep threat in the passing game at over 20 yards per catch. It presents an interesting matchup against a Philly defense than finished the season ranked fourth or better in every major statistical
category. Game Notes - Since his benching at Baltimore, Donovan McNabb responded with nine TD passes against just one INT in the Eagles’ final five games (4-1 SU). Final Take - The Vikings have dramatically improved their pass defense this season giving up just 215 ypg after ranking dead last in 2007. It should be noted that the one team Philly was unable to beat down the stretch was Washington whose style and statistical profile stacks up almost identically to that of Minnesota. We’ll take the points with the Vikings and back their edges on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
JARED KLEIN
NY RANGERS AT WASHINGTON (1/3)
Recommendation: Washington
Despite losing a grand total of nine key players to injury, the Washington Capitals are the best home team in the Eastern Conference with an overall record of 14-2. The Capitals have managed to win eight of their last nine and are 10-3 SU in the month of December. The key for Washington’s success
has been the depth of their minor league system as a slew of newcomers
have been called up to fill in for the various starters. (RW Alex Semin C Sergei Fedorov, D Jeff Schultz, D John Erskine, D Tom Poti, D Mike Green, D Brian Pothier, G Brent Johnson and LW Tomas Fleischmann have missed time). In a recent game against Buffalo, the youngsters forced 20 takeaways and held the Sabres to just 24 shots on goal in a 3-2 victory. The Rangers have lost three straight games as of December 28th and are 5-6 SU in December.
They have given up an average of four gpg over their last three and just don’t have the offensive firepower needed to compete on a nightly basis
(2.68 gpg) in the NHL. With the strong home record, I look for the young Capitals to take care of business this weekend against the slumping Rangers.
BRENT CROW
WAKE FOREST AT BYU (1/3)
Recommendation: BYU
Wake Forest will enter their final non-conference tune-up with a perfect 12-0 record but it will not be easy for them to remain unbeaten. BYU was 10-1 entering their road game earlier this week at Tulsa, and return home Saturday to one of the strongest home courts in the country. The Cougars are a remarkable
54-1 SU at home over the past three-plus seasons, including a 6-0 mark in 2008. Also note that all of their wins in Provo this season have come by double-
digits and the Cougars will be looking for some revenge after Wake Forest won in Winston-Salem last year, 79-62. Wake Forest has a very solid team this year; a legitimate top-ten outfit with plenty of size. Their front line may be the biggest in the nation and point guard Jeff Teague has been outstanding thus far. BYU may not come from a power conference but don’t be fooled, their only loss this season came on a neutral court to 17th-ranked Arizona State. In the loss, a would-be game-winning shot by the Cougars was overturned as time expired. This will mark Wake’s biggest challenge of the season and we look for BYU to rise to the occasion and keep its home court streak intact.
DONNIE BLACK
VANDERBILT AT UMASS (1/3)
Recommendation: UMass
With a new coach and system, UMass players were quoted as saying the dribble-drive offense brought over by former Memphis assistant Derek Kellogg was a difficult transition. Through their first six games (1-5 SU), the Minutemen just couldn’t hit shots (42% FGs) but patience is starting to pay off. Since an overtime loss to Boston College, UMass is on a four-game win streak (48% FGs) including a win over Kansas. This weekend, they play host to a young Vanderbilt
squad that ventures out for only its second true road game. Due to the large roster turnover, the Commodores put together a fairly soft non-conference schedule with only two games against power conference teams (0-2). With the exception of AJ Ogilvy and Jermaine Beal, the rest of Vandy’s team is void of much experience with only two upperclassmen on the roster. Over the last few years, Vanderbilt has been known as a sharp shooting outfit but both their field goal (45%) and three-point (35%) shooting are down from last year’s numbers. The key to stopping Vandy is holding Ogilvy in check. In Vandy’s three losses, he shot 12 percent lower (43%) than his season average (55%). UMass’ 7-0 center Luke Bonner recently returned from a knee injury and provides the Minutemen with a big body in the paint. Look for a competitively priced game and the home team to come away with the win.
FAIRWAY JAY
WAKE FOREST AT BYU (1/3)
Recommendation: Wake Forest
The nation’s longest home winning streak belongs to BYU, as the Cougars have won 53 consecutive games at the Marriott Center and stand 116-10 on their home floor the past eight-plus seasons. They will face their toughest challenge of the season when they host undefeated Wake Forest on Saturday. With a seating capacity of 22,700, the Marriott Center is one of the most cavernous basketball arenas in the country. The massive interior has long been know to cause opposing teams shooting
problems. However, Wake Forest features a big, physical front line with James Johnson and Chas McFarland joining freshman phenom and leading rebounder Al Farouq Aminu. All three forwards average double-digit scoring and each shoot at least 50% from the field. Sophomore guard Jeff Teauge leads the Deacons in scoring, assists and hits over 53% of his shots. Wake Forest averages over 82 ppg with a scoring margin of over 22 ppg. They also sport a phenomenal defense, out-rebounding teams by over 11 rpg and holding them to 36% FGs. The Deacons’ solid perimeter defense can control Lee Cummard, Jonathan Tavernari and the Cougars’
preferred play from the perimeter. I look for Wake to end the Cougs’ streak.
MARTY OTTO
PITTSBURGH AT GEORGETOWN (1/3)
Recommendation: Georgetown
The Hoyas will be in the midst of a brutal scheduling spot that sees them play UConn, Pitt and Notre Dame in a one-week span to open the Big East conference
season. With the first and last of those games coming on the road, this one becomes a rallying point for Georgetown to score a marquee home win. These are two of the best defensive teams in the country as both hold opponents well under 40% from the floor. Pitt, however, hasn’t really been challenged by a team can match them on the interior and as a result, their stats are slightly inflated. Georgetown’s Greg Monroe has the size to negate Pitt’s DeJuan Blair and make the Panthers a rather one-dimensional jump shooting team. That should play right into our hands as Pitt has been notoriously
suspect from the outside over the last few editions. Georgetown is the epitome of offensive efficiency with four starters that shoot better than 50%. The Hoyas will have already been tested against the likes of UConn, Tennessee, Memphis and Maryland. That experience will pay dividends on Saturday, and in a shortly lined game, the Hoyas get it done at home.
ED CASH
MISSOURI AT GEORGIA (1/3)
Recommendation: Missouri
As usual, the key for Missouri’s success is to force turnovers with its pressure defense. Coach Mike Anderson is a Nolan Richardson disciple and he loves the “40 minutes of hell” pressure-style defense that Richardson’s Arkansas teams were noted for. Missouri typically struggles away from home, but this is hardly a difficult venue. Stegeman Coliseum owns a capacity of over 10,000 but through eight games, the Dogs are averaging just 5,600 fans. More important is UGA’s inability to hang on to the basketball. Already this year, Georgia has committed 25 turnovers in a home loss to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 27 in a loss at Illinois, and 18 in a loss to Loyola-Chicago. Not surprising,
the Bulldogs are very weak at the point guard position and the turnovers could occur at an even higher rate this weekend against the Tigers’ press. Georgia is developing some nice big men in Howard Thompkins and Jeremy Price but they won’t see the ball enough to do much damage in this game. Missouri has already beaten USC and Cal this season with their only losses coming to Illinois and Xavier. They should get an easy win over the Bulldogs.
TEDDY COVERS
NEW JERSEY AT MIAMI (1/3)
Recommendation: New Jersey
We’ve backed the Nets more than once on the road after a sub-par showing at home. New Jersey’s entire season has been about playing lackluster, lethargic basketball for extended stretches at the Izod Center, then turning up the intensity
as soon as they leave town for hostile venues. The numbers don’t lie. The Nets fell to 5-11 SU at home after losing to Charlotte this past weekend. Take the Nets out of New Jersey and they are 10-4 SU – right there with Orlando,
Cleveland and Boston as the best road teams in the East. Against the spread, the Nets are even better on the highway; 11-3 ATS after exacting revenge
on the Bobcats last Friday in Charlotte following the home loss. And the Nets have been tremendous playing on the second night of back-to-backs, covering the number at a 70% clip. Miami has struggled against teams that rebound
and defend the paint well like New Jersey. The Heat simply don’t have the size and muscle to contend inside, settling for perimeter jumpers when Dwayne Wade can’t penetrate effectively. Expect that to be Miami’s downfall here in a game they’ll struggle to win outright let alone cover the number.
ERIN RYNNING
NEW ORLEANS AT DENVER (1/3)
Recommendation: Under
Off a Friday night clash against Portland, New Orleans will make the short trip to the Mile High City to face the Nuggets the following night. While the wins are there, the Hornets just haven’t looked as strong as last year. The main culprit in my opinion has been an offense that teams are starting to figure out. Point guard Chris Paul has had little to no room to operate and is now seeing double teams on a nightly basis. Of course, with few offensive weapons on the Hornets, any slowdown from Paul goes a long way to keeping
this team off the scoreboard. As we near the All-Star break, New Orleans’ scoring average is one of the league’s lowest at 95.1 ppg. Last season they ranked ninth at 100.9 ppg. Meanwhile, the Nuggets continue to transform themselves since the Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson trade. I’ve noticed that against better competition the Nuggets have not only play a slower style, but a tougher brand of defense as well. Overall, this one sets up as a slugfest, with Paul and Billups running the show for their respective teams and turning
it into a grind-it-out, half-court affair. Play this contest Under the total.
ROB VENO
MILWAUKEE AT CHARLOTTE (1/3)
Recommendation: Charlotte
This will serve as the back end of a home-and-home between these two teams but more importantly a bit of a revenge for the Bobcats who were defeated in Milwaukee
79-74 back in late November. Things are a bit different now for Charlotte, which is on a 5-2 ATS run as of this writing. The trade with Phoenix, which brought versatile swingmen Raja Bell and Boris Diaw, seems to be providing positive chemistry.
Bell’s defensive ability should harass Bucks star shooter Michael Redd, limiting
one of Milwaukee’s main scoring options. The Bobcats matchup well against Milwaukee’s other top guns as Gerald Wallace will keep counterpart Richard Jefferson
working hard on defense all night and Emeka Okafor can neutralize Milwaukee’s pivot man Andrew Bogut. Recent point guard play from Charlotte tandem Raymond
Felton and rookie D.J. Augustin has been a main cog in the teams’ improved play and they should dominate the Bucks’ trio of Luke Ridnour, Tyronn Lue and Ramon Sessions. The Bucks have tightened the screws defensively as head coach Scott Skiles had held six straight opponents under 93 as of December 30 but the matchups and home court here really suits Charlotte in the small to mid-price range.
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